Norway World Cup 2026 Predictions

Norway's Return to the World Cup

The last time Norway appeared at a World Cup was France 1998, where they memorably beat Brazil 2-1 in the group stage. Since then, Norwegian football endured decades of near-misses, failed qualifications, and frustrating campaigns. The 2026 tournament marks the end of a 28-year wait and the beginning of a new era.

This squad is fundamentally different from any Norway have fielded before. Led by Erling Haaland, arguably the most feared striker in world football, and Martin Odegaard, one of the most creative midfielders in the game, Norway have match-winners who can compete with anyone on their day. The question is whether the rest of the squad can support them through a tough group.

Group I Overview

Group I is one of the toughest draws in the tournament. France are World Cup regulars and 2022 finalists, Senegal are reigning African champions, and Iraq add unpredictability. Norway will need to be at their best to advance.

France are clear favorites to win the group. The battle for second place between Norway and Senegal will likely decide who advances. Norway must target maximum points from Iraq and Senegal while hoping to take something from the France match. In the expanded 48-team format, a third-place finish with enough points could still be enough to reach the Round of 32.

Norway's Group Stage Fixtures

The schedule works in Norway's favor in one key respect: the Iraq match comes first. A convincing opening win would build confidence and take pressure off the Senegal match. The France fixture on matchday 3 could become a dead rubber for France if they have already qualified, potentially giving Norway a better chance of getting a result.

Key Players to Watch

What Norway Need to Advance

In the 48-team World Cup format, the top two teams from each group qualify for the Round of 32, along with the eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups. This gives Norway multiple paths to the knockout stage.

• Best case: Beat Iraq and Senegal, then face France with qualification already secured. A draw or win against France could mean topping the group above Senegal.
• Likely scenario: Beat Iraq, split points with Senegal, and qualify as second or third. Two wins and a defeat should be enough for the knockout stage.
• Minimum requirement: Beat Iraq and take at least a point from Senegal. Four points from three matches would give Norway an excellent chance of advancing as one of the best third-placed teams.
• Danger scenario: A slow start against Iraq or a heavy defeat to Senegal would leave everything on the France match, which is the hardest possible position to be in.

Dark Horse Potential

Norway are widely picked as one of the dark horses of the 2026 World Cup, and for good reason. They have the single most dangerous striker in the tournament in Haaland, paired with a world-class creative midfielder in Odegaard. On their day, that combination can hurt any defence in the world.

The concern is depth beyond the top players. Norway lack the squad quality of traditional powerhouses, and if Haaland or Odegaard are injured or neutralized, the team's threat level drops significantly. But in a cup format, individual brilliance can carry a team further than overall squad balance. Just ask Morocco from 2022 or South Korea from 2002.

If Norway advance from the group, they will believe they can beat anyone in a one-off knockout match. Haaland on a World Cup stage is a prospect every opponent will fear. For the full picture of dark horses and favorites, see our favorites breakdown.